Feb1 trading on DAX and USDJPY

As I was waiting for the FOMC rate decision, I completed the documentation an16443868_10154143882941218_1682629745_od analysis of the trades I did today.  All my trades were on DAX (the German stockmarket index) and USDJPY as I was focusing on these today.  Both of these instruments tend to move up and down throughout the day a lot lately (i.e. they have high volatility).
Below is a slideshow of the trades I took, along with some commentary – the objective is partly to illustrate how i am attempting to be more fluid in my trading.  It also helps me track how I change my analysis of charts as time passes.  (I do actually document every single trade that I take).

Am also trying to incorporate some of the material from ‘Das grosse Buch der Marktechnik’ (Michael Voigt) – which is very helpful in understanding the trend context, which in turn helps me in target setting (and thus go for bigger winners!).  Thanks Bram, a Dutch military veteran (from the Veteran Trader Project) for lending me this German text!

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Staying in the trades continues to be a challenge for me.

A few words on win rate and reward-risk ratio….

This week thus far I am down 1.17R – that’s from 14 losses/scratch trades and all of 3 winners.  The average winner was 1.06R, the average loss/scratch was -0.31R.  This is NOT the type of distribution of results that I would like to have.

Many traders would be able to appreciate that a 18% win rate with a Reward-Risk Ratio of 3.4 is psychologically rather difficult.    Not staying in the winning trades for longer, or much more often, getting out of trades for a small losses and missing out on decent winners, is costing me a lot.  This issue is nothing new – you can find it talked about in most trading books.  Let your winners run and cut your losses short – I’d like to toss a tonne of four letters word in that direction LOL.

 

All right, 6 minutes to the Fed….

This entry was posted in Reversals Strategy, Trend-Following Strategy. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Feb1 trading on DAX and USDJPY

  1. This is why i personally find discretionary day trading so hard.
    Not only do you have to time the entry well. But even more important you have to handle the exit properly. A missed timed entry leads to a small fixed 1R loss but a miss timed exit could mean a huge winner is missed, just because you became impatient or panicked or did not want to give back your profits when the market began to retrace, so you got shaken out early.
    This is why they say exits are even more important than entries.

    I just let all my winners run, if the market comes back and stops me out repeatedly then i try and not take it personally. You have to prepared to give back significant profits a lot of time if you want to catch the really big winners. Win rate for my systems are in the 40% to 45% range. Only about 5 or 10% of those winners are big winners (over 5R).
    You also have to be prepared to take 10+ losers in a row, when trading a system with a win rate below 50%. Most traders aren’t willing to do that!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I know it’s hard but if your system has an edge, enter the trade and let the exits take care of themselves with limit orders. The ONLY control you have is trade entry-once in, the market can go nuts, and you can do nothing about it-your stops might work but prices can blow right through them.
    I battled as a full time trader with FTSE futures and with cable and just found it too hard,though I had a good futures method, I just got trigger shy. I could not get your clip to play,will try on Chrome on my Mac

    Liked by 1 person

    • Thanks for your comments David. In the terms of the ‘clip’ – it should simply be a slideshow of 5-6 different images – they will continue to shuffle automatically unless you hit ‘pause’.

      Like

      • Have you ever had someone sit next to you during a trading day? I think that would be a serious make or break,irrespective of thetechnical details of your methods. Seeing a chart retrospectively doesn’t say much to me,but well done for your openness. My current options trade- I got a half measure as the market didn’t like my price, but I am all but on the sidelines while the mayhem unfolds.Also FTSE seems glued to the floor currently-it just looks like nobody wants to trade. Dax I think is a basket case by the way!

        Like

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