Initially, this was going to be private post – but then I thought I publish it instead to make myself accountable for some of the poor trading that i did today. Regardless I am obviously still taking the time to painstakingly review what I did (still inspired by Tiger Woods) so that I can learn and trade better next week, next month, next year and (maybe) in the next life! Additionally publicly highlighting my poor performance should make these things stick even more so.
There is a fair amount of detailed technical analysis in this post – it’s not easy reading, but could be considered good exercises for people already versed with some trading techniques. Feel free to comment below and also to ask questions.
Today I took 3 long trades on the DAX. Each of the trades was a partial loser. That said, the DAX more or less traded flat for the day.
- Yest Close (at 9pm): 11,645
- Today’s high: 11,721
- Today’s low: 11,645 (same as yest close)
- Today’s close: TBD
- Current Price: 11,672
At the start of the session, using Voigt’s marketstructure and basic EMA analysis, I classified the DAX to be in a slight bullish state.
I was waiting for a pullback to the EMAs before taking a long trade. In order to take three long trades in the more I used first the 15M, then the 30M and finally the 1H timeframe to ‘justify’ long trades.
The first trade looked like this:
After being closed on tightened stop, continued to monitor the instrument. I had to switch to the 30M timeframe (one higher up), in order to ‘find’ a setup. I had my bullish bias and wanted to trade it – I didn’t want to miss out on a potential move up in equities.
After the 30M trade also didn’t work, I then went up to the 1H timeframe. Here we go:
Here’s what all these trades looked like on the 5M timeframe for the session:
What else could I learn from these DAX trades?
- That it’s not a good idea to look for a single candle to act as a trigger candle for getting into the trade? For my continuation/trend-following trades, it tends to work much better where a pattern or picture is painted over several candles, rather than just one. That’s a good insight – that’s something to take note of.
- Wait for more clarity – compare how nicely the US30 trended once it got underway. There were quite a few attractive/beautiful setups in the New York session (see US30 and AUDUSD for example).
Given that I was not able to parlay on my bullish-equities belief into profits in the DAX, I had another go with the US30 (the Wall Street index) once the US cash market had opened at 2.30pm London time. Here the setup was reasonable ok, and price looked to be respecting the EMAs on the 15M timeframe. Hence I chose the 15M as XTF and a good bullish pinbar completed at 14:45pm (15 minutes after the Wall St open).
The following chart shows what the trade looked like – the trade initally went 17 points against me (on a 30 point stop) before finally rallying and going as high as 31 points in profit. From there it pulled back a fair amount. Looking at this now, I need to ask the following:
The final trade on the day was a reversal trade on AUDUSD – the lesson to pick up here is that I completely missed the 1H picture. Earlier in the day I had marked out a symmetrical triangle formation on Aussie Dollar. But I had failed to pay attention to that when I took the short trade – even though I had looked at the 1H chart to identify a potential S/R zone around the zone where the pattern took place – that in itself is a sign that I was looking for evidence to support what I wanted to do. Naturally, a lot of this becomes a lot easier after the fact – and naturally I like to be incredibly hard on myself here.
Here’s the 1H chart that provides the context (remembering that I didn’t spot it at the time).
Here’s what things looked like on the 1M and 5M charts – the setup was taken from the 5M chart:
Took a trade on that too. Not a huge amount to learn from that one – in comparison to what I can pick up from the trades on DAX, US30 and AUDUSD.
The only point would have been that the setup was not overly clear – it was okay, but not amazing. And probably also influence by my strong bias on USDJPY.
Thus, maybe I need to watch not assigning to much weight to my directional biases from the start of the session.
What else re these USD pairs?
- I had forgotten about the US 3pm news – shame on me! That shouldn’t happen – that’s unacceptable.
- I should have also remembered about the Trump-Abe press conference at 5-6pm London time – dude, WTF!!
REVIEW OF TRADES
Are you starting to see how important it is to review trades, so that you can improve, and become a better trader?