Last week was a tough one for me battling insomnia & flu – but I tried to crack on with my strategy development.
Sickness & Trading aside – key highlights for last week had to be watching several exciting mountain stages in the Tour de France at the local Rapha cycling cafe. The hard-trained cyclists are a constant source of inspiration for my trading ambitions.
Here are details of what I did, conversations I had with various traders, as well as another bunch of good links on trading content.
Oil & Forex Trading Strategy Development
- Rolled out testing model for Crude Oil futures to various periods in 2011 and 2014-2016 – increasing the number of test trades in the sample to approx 1,200. This should now be sufficient for completing further analysis. My thinking is that tinkering will relate to where a setup is located in the context of the trend (how far from swing points, how strong the trend is) as opposed to tinkering with the setup parameters and trade management rules.
- This model revolves around the use of a single pin bar for getting into a trade. If this proves to be of no insight after considering the trend context, then I will look at 2-3 different pull back scenarios, at least one breakout and a setup for ranging markets.
- All these variations will use the existing model, as well as all the futures data that I have imported and formatted, as a base.
- The various steps of the testing continue to take longer than expected – I will need to move from Microsoft Excel to other tools such as TradeStation/Easy Language or something like Multicharts (several people continue to nudge me about that).
- Reminding myself of the bigger picture (diagram based on content from YourTradingCoach/Lance Beggs):
Meetings & Conversations
- Two meetings with discretionary trader at hedge fund as per status quo.
- 2-hour meet with retail trader buddy on Sunday morning
- On the topic of trader conversations:
COMING UP THIS WEEK For readers located in central London, there is an opportunity to get together for a beer with other traders this coming Wednesday, 6.30pm, in the City, organized by Paul Wallace – no registration/booking required – just turn up, have a beer and talk trading. Meet-Up Details here.
Live Trading Room for Oil Futures – now on hold
At the beginning of the week, I have put my Trading Mission live trading room membership on hold here. Although the room has been registering profitable results for the past three months in which I have taken part, I have not been able to replicate those results for a number of reasons. That said, the experience has a been a good one, and I felt that i learned a great deal, as the lead trader Carlos Diaz has huge amount of trading experience. Planning to write a separate blog post on that (and live trading rooms in general) in the near future.
Good links, articles and reading
Firstly, I’ve added a new page on the blog for a discussion on Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum – I will update this page as I come across interesting relevant content. Click here to go to the new page. (or look for the subject heading in the menu at the top of the page)
As in recent weeks, here are some good links I came across during the week:
- Broadswordcapital: [Trading] Things I’ve learned in the last 30 years
- Bloomberg: Hedge Fund bosses argue why human traders are still required
- Emotional Finance: Anxiety, adrenaline and automation – discussion on move from discretionary to systematic trading
- Cap Gemini report on High Frequency Trading (2012): this is a great 20-pager explaining HFT, how it came about and how it impacts the markets. Though already published 5 years ago (a lifetime in HFT!), it’s still good reading
- Forbes: 4 Lessons learned from training successful traders -another good article written by trader & psychologist Brett Steenbarger
Have a good week everyone, and hope you have a summer holiday booked – remember traders need breaks sometimes!! (plus the market are low in volatility and volumes in any case at the moment!)